Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 23.135093 25.170968 27.367104 29.922977 32.829390 36.047760 39.903534
2026-01-11 20.077765 22.903096 26.166693 30.259257 35.317569 41.451146 49.588785
2026-01-18 17.706853 20.919428 24.827097 30.022802 36.897362 45.907371 59.017439
2026-01-25 16.004588 19.439265 23.793707 29.870355 38.392686 50.362433 69.349356
2026-02-01 14.736892 18.314038 23.009009 29.838569 39.922870 55.013129 81.017413
2026-02-08 13.679265 17.326551 22.255077 29.684598 41.164021 59.362150 93.293569
2026-02-15 12.790600 16.467214 21.561950 29.486781 42.242061 63.573948 106.497961
2026-02-22 12.031145 15.711536 20.925707 29.267204 43.203560 67.711085 120.839479
2026-03-01 11.416108 15.104882 20.439277 29.201418 44.373830 72.407155 138.001300
2026-03-08 10.872585 14.556483 19.983906 29.117972 45.473421 77.162420 157.198295
2026-03-15 10.627154 14.425277 20.144791 30.053357 48.533872 86.532032 192.615423
2026-03-22 10.137606 13.890185 19.626313 29.765172 49.227160 91.004309 216.860043
2026-03-29 9.724481 13.457144 19.254644 29.726378 50.471350 97.208176 251.148268
2026-04-05 9.409121 13.156953 19.076768 30.019366 52.451813 105.787502 300.848239
2026-04-12 9.018841 12.714690 18.630433 29.769067 53.246216 111.625570 345.651619
2026-04-19 8.677854 12.331086 18.254586 29.611637 54.220335 118.276257 401.605515
2026-04-26 8.385178 12.008552 17.959321 29.577421 55.469030 126.149001 474.471799
2026-05-03 8.095669 11.675135 17.621761 29.424185 56.414730 133.471058 556.417568
2026-05-10 7.820810 11.351560 17.280009 29.228332 57.228325 140.709334 652.413032
2026-05-17 7.562074 11.042032 16.943649 29.011267 57.958146 147.993620 766.703315
2026-05-24 7.342652 10.788052 16.691490 28.946211 59.074127 157.162890 925.971949
2026-05-31 7.134824 10.543911 16.442267 28.863759 60.135950 166.653609 1126.560511
2026-06-07 7.073334 10.546972 16.648003 29.787542 64.136107 190.088445 1650.682978